National economics

What correct tyre pressure is worth to the country

Fuel, tyre life, casualty reduction and carbon, built from figures already published by government and by TyreSafe.

Anchor evidence

Numbers that are already on the record

Every figure here is published by government or by TyreSafe. None of it is generated by AiR.

£1bn

UK fuel wasted every year through underinflation

The addressable household and fleet cash waste the intervention targets

Source S1

342.6bn

GB motor vehicle miles driven in 2025

The recurring intervention surface AiR sits inside

Source S2

42.3m

Licensed vehicles in the UK at end of 2025

The national addressable fleet

Source S3

53,000+

Tyre-related motorway and major A road breakdowns in 2024

Close to one in five incidents on the strategic network

Source S4

31%

Domestic transport share of UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2025

Why road efficiency is a decarbonisation question

Source S5

172

People killed or seriously injured in tyre-related incidents in 2024

Five-year average of 153 KSI, the human case for action

Source S1

6m+

Tyres replaced each year already at illegal tread

The scale of undetected deterioration on UK roads

Source S1

4.8%

Zero-emission share of licensed UK vehicles at end of 2025

Petrol and diesel savings matter now; pressure efficiency still matters to EVs

Source S3

Capture scenarios

Choose a share of the existing waste and see what it is worth

A capture share is the portion of the published £1bn annual underinflation fuel waste successfully eliminated. It is a sensitivity case, not a prediction.

Gross fuel cost avoided

£500m

Cash retained by households and fleets each year

Modelled

Fuel demand avoided

360m litres

Litres of road fuel no longer required for the same mobility

Modelled

Avoided tailpipe emissions

835,434 tCO2e

2025 UK conversion factors, equal petrol and diesel blend

Modelled

Social carbon value

£228m

Appraisal value at £273/tCO2e. Never revenue

Appraisal

Gross fuel cost avoided by capture share, £m per year

10%100m

25%250m

50%500m

75%750m

100%1000m

Avoided emissions by capture share, thousand tCO2e per year

10%167k

25%418k

50%835k

75%1253k

100%1671k

1 year cumulative at 50% capture

£728m

Fuel cash avoided£500m

Social carbon value£228m

Emissions avoided835,434 tCO2e

10 year cumulative at 50% capture

£7.28bn

Fuel cash avoided£5.00bn

Social carbon value£2.28bn

Emissions avoided8.35 MtCO2e

50 year cumulative at 50% capture

£36.40bn

Fuel cash avoided£25.00bn

Social carbon value£11.40bn

Emissions avoided41.77 MtCO2e

Straight multiples with no discounting and no assumed fuel price inflation, so the arithmetic can be checked line by line.

Fiscal reality

Not every pound saved is new national wealth

Stating this plainly is what makes the rest of the case durable under scrutiny.

Pump prices include fuel duty and VAT. When road fuel demand falls, drivers and businesses keep more cash and the Exchequer collects less duty and VAT. Those are transfers within the economy rather than pure welfare gains, so they are shown separately and never added to the headline. The government case rests on safety, carbon, energy resilience, productivity and lower household and fleet costs.

At 50% capture

Fuel duty forgone£191m

VAT on avoided spend£83m

Treated asTransfer, not welfare gain

Deliberate exclusions

What the headline case leaves out

The headline case does not need any of these to work. Fuel waste alone is a £1bn a year addressable cash problem. Everything above is additional upside the pilot is designed to measure rather than assert.

Tyre life extension and fewer premature replacementsTyre-related breakdown, roadside recovery and network delay costAccident and casualty reductionEV electricity and range benefit from correct pressureFleet productivity, maintenance and downtime savingsAir quality and particulate benefit from lower fuel useResearch value of a national tyre safety datasetAny carbon market revenue, which is handled separately and only after verification

Energy security

Fewer litres for the same journeys

AiR is not a fuel price intervention. Retail prices are set by crude and product markets, refining, exchange rates, taxes, margin and competition. What nationwide pressure optimisation does is reduce the number of litres the UK has to consume for the same mobility outcome, which lowers structural demand and marginal exposure to international supply and price shocks.

Oil dependence

Oil was 40% of UK energy consumption in 2024, and transport fuels were about three quarters of oil product demand.

Road efficiency targets the single largest oil demand use case in the economy.

Source S9

Import exposure

UK net energy import dependency was 47.1% in Q1 2026, with primary oil net imports of 3.7m tonnes in the quarter.

Every litre not required is a litre the UK does not need to buy from an international market.

Source S10

Price volatility

DESNZ and CMA data show rapid pump price movement during energy market disruption.

Efficiency is a permanent hedge. Fewer litres are needed at any pump price.

Source S13

Future EV mix

Zero-emission vehicles were 4.8% of licensed UK vehicles at end of 2025.

Fuel savings are the near-term prize. Pressure efficiency carries over to EV energy use and tyre wear.

Source S3

Government case

What a national rollout delivers against stated objectives

Road safety and Vision ZeroA measured, recorded intervention at the moment a driver is standing next to the tyre, with referral rather than judgement on condition.

Net zero and carbon budgetsAvoided tailpipe emissions from the largest source of domestic transport emissions, with MRV grade evidence per session.

Cost of livingCash back into household and fleet budgets from fuel and tyre spend that is currently wasted.

Energy securityLower structural road fuel demand in an economy that imports a substantial share of its energy.

Productivity and freight reliabilityFewer tyre-related breakdowns and less unplanned downtime on the strategic road network.

Evidence and policy designA national dataset that can answer questions about tyre condition and driver behaviour that are currently unanswerable.

Delivery

Evidence first national pilot

The next step is not a national claim. It is a jointly governed, independently evaluated pilot designed to produce the evidence national adoption would require.

Phase 1 - Single region, limited sites

Session completion rate, calibration drift, data completeness

Prove measurement integrity, calibration and driver flow

Phase 2 - Multi-region, mixed site types

Correction rate, 30, 60 and 90 day repeat rate, campaign conversion

Establish behaviour change and repeat check rates

Phase 3 - National, with fleet cohorts

Validated response curves, casualty and breakdown association, verified tonnes

Independent evaluation of energy, wear and safety response

Phase 4 - National rollout

Coverage, national pressure health, published research outputs

Policy adoption and standing national observatory

Sources

Every figure traceable

S1TyreSafe, tyre safety statistics and campaign material, including KSI figures, illegal tread volumes and the approximately £1bn annual fuel waste estimate.

S2DfT road traffic statistics, Great Britain motor vehicle traffic, 342.6 billion vehicle miles in 2025.

S3DfT and DVLA vehicle licensing statistics, 42.3 million licensed vehicles at end 2025, zero-emission share 4.8%.

S4TyreSafe with National Highways, more than 53,000 tyre-related breakdowns on motorways and major A roads in 2024.

S5UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics, domestic transport 31% of UK emissions in 2025.

S6TyreSafe guidance on correct inflation, handling and premature wear.

S7TyreSafe, approximately 3% fuel economy loss at around 20% underinflation.

S8DESNZ weekly road fuel price statistics, 2025 averages of 135.0p/litre unleaded and 142.7p/litre diesel.

S9UK energy statistics, oil at 40% of energy consumption in 2024 with transport fuels around three quarters of oil product demand.

S10UK energy trends, Q1 2026 net import dependency 47.1%, primary oil net imports 3.7 million tonnes.

S11UK Government greenhouse gas conversion factors 2025, 2.069 kgCO2e/litre petrol and 2.571 kgCO2e/litre diesel, average biofuel blend.

S12UK Government carbon values for appraisal, 2025 central value of £273/tCO2e in 2022 prices.

S13DESNZ and CMA road fuel price monitoring.

S14UK Government voluntary carbon and nature market integrity principles.

S15ICVCM Core Carbon Principles, including additionality, robust quantification, tracking and no double counting.

S16Recognised crediting programme rules, for example Verra VCS and Gold Standard, on methodology approval, validation and verification.

S17CMA Green Claims Code, environmental claims must be accurate, clear and substantiated.

S18HMRC fuel duty rate, 52.95p/litre for petrol and diesel.

National scale arithmetic

Fuel, tyre life and casualty reduction modelled from published inputs.